A perilous impasse

Barak Obama's new presidency offered the world the prospect of avoiding a showdown with Iran over its nuclear weapons programme. Weary of the war in Iraq and the endless, elusive battle against Al Qaeda, the prospect of direct negotiations between the US and Iran was held out by the new President as alternative to the unpopular, aggressive ‘you're with us or against us' policy of George W Bush.

But now we are days away from a new ‘deadline' that the US and the Security Council has given to the Iranian regime. Even before last weeks startling revelations that Iran had a secret nuclear plant (see The New York Times article that broke the news, click here, observers judged that Iran would have nuclear weapons by next year. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany (the "5+1") are confronting Tehran with demands to end their nuclear programme at talks in Geneva.

Yes, we have been here before. World opinion was wound up in 2006 to impose serious sanctions that might have stopped the Iranian bomb. This was derailed by the 2007 US National Intelligence estimate. Its headline said that in 2003 the Iranians, fearing the fall of their regime, had ceased their plans to ‘weaponize' their enriched uranium.  

Few read the fine print of that report. In fact, the programme probably only stopped for about six months. But the damage to the cause of concerted international diplomacy to stop the Iranians was done. Maybe this time, as it becomes clearer the Iranians are seeking  to weaponise nuclear bombs and put them on their increasingly sophisticated medium range rockets, the world will act.

As negotiations were about to commence Iran test its Shahab-3 liquid fuel and the more advanced Sejil 2 solid fuel missiles, which can reach any target in the Middle East, including Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and US military bases. Iran's Defence Minister, Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi - a veteran Islamist terrorist who masterminded the bombing of a Jewish cultural centre in Argentina 15 years ago - has made clear that Israel is the intended target of the Iranian nuclear/missile program.(click here)

Iran tests fires missiles last week

Most alarmingly, there has been disclosure of Iran's main nuclear development plant, at a military base outside Qom. Iran, in a apparent attempt to appear "transparent", revealed the existence of this plant in a letter to the IAEA. The same morning President Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and President Nicholas Sarkozy held a joint press conference at the G20 summit to reveal it. (to see the Politico story on President Obama's revelation of the secret plant, click here) 

Satellite photo of the secret nuclear plant at Qom

Iran is playing its usual delaying game. Even Russia faced with Iran's duplicity may drop its opposition to effective sanctions. The big unknown is China, but China very rarely uses its Security Council veto.

Ahmedenijad regime has not been able to fudge  on the international community‘s demand for immediate, intrusive inspections of the secret nuclear plant at Qom.  (Click here)

And the Iranian President's mad declaration, in the middle of all of these developments,  denying the Nazi Genocide of European Jews (and millions of others),  also has a purpose.

For only last week there were more street protests all over Iran. Ahmedinejad and the revolutionary Guard faction who back him hope that stirring Islamist anti-Jewish sentiment and increasing international fear Iran's nuclear weapons will shore up their shaky domestic position.

There is, of course, another player in this very dangerous game. Iran is not yet able to fire its missiles at Washington or London. The intended target is Israel, which Ahmedinejad has repeatedly threatened with destruction. Israel no doubt hopes that the 5+1 talks which will resume in a week, will bring an agreement. But serious  Israeli analysts believe that  Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak  do have an ultimate military option  if the deadline with Tehran fails.

US strategist like Anthony Cordsman, who has been critical of Jerusalem, believe that the Israelis have the capacity not to knock out, but set back several years the Persian Bomb.  (Click here)

Iranian President Ahmadenijad inspects uranium enrichment facility

Netanyahu's lightning mission to Moscow last month,  which confronted the Russian with their scientists role in building the Persian bomb, still means that Putin is leaving open the window of military action to concentrate Iranian minds .  Russia has still not supplied Iran the integrated air defence system that would make the cost of an Israeli  air attack prohibitive. (Click here)

There is still time for alternatives to military action. There are serious sanctions that the west can impose on Iran, on banking , insurance and shipping. Although Iran is a major oil exporter, it imports most of its refined petroleum. Australia in circumstances of Iranian non compliance should work through the G20 to cutting off refined petroleum imports. Hopefully the mullahs will choose survival over military conflict.  (See Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith Comments, "In the past, Australia has fully implemented United Nations Security Council resolutions so far as sanctions are concerned on Iran and we have also adopted autonomous additional sanctions. And I've made it clear to all concerned that, if dialogue is not successful, Australia is fully prepared to contemplate further autonomous sanctions against Iran in this respect". click here for more.)

But Iran has to be brought to believe that the world means business.  China must be convinced a veto on the Security Council will only make the prospect of military action greater. If a very damaging and costly regional war is to be avoided, now is the time for the Security Council, led by the US, to make it clear that we are not bluffing.

Michael Danby is the Federal Member for Melbourne Ports and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Sub-Committe